Bros. Before Hoes: Poll Numbers

Bros. Before Hoes: Poll Numbers

The cooler talk at work has turned to politics as is the case during a presidential cycle. Generally these conversations are the purview of men, but I have the distinction of working on a few noteworthy campaigns. Okay...I worked the presidential cycle as a researcher in 2000 and the aftermath known as the recount and I worked the debacle that was September 11th in NYC. I've poured over daily poll numbers, helped with prepping for nationally televised debates and sat in on focus groups. So in the land of cooler talk I am regarded at times like I'm the ragin' cagun himself.

So more or less every morning some senior staffer stops by my desk to ask if I've seen the latest numbers. Of course I haven't because with roughly seven months before the election year, I know numbers mean not much at this point. Also I am acutely aware that if Obama actually leads any poll at this point he's DOA for the election year. But so it goes and I so I go as I quickly look over the poll snapshot and give a quick analysis for the senior staffer in question.

Today two polls gave divergent 'information'....USA Today has Obama besting Hillary and Rueters is reporting a Wall Street Journal poll having Hillary increasing her lead by a few points (but in both polls Dems drop kick Reps in the general election). Coworkers favoring Hillary (she is actually my US Senator)have come to me touting her 'commanding lead', for these coworkers I have an interesting questions 'what's her favorables like -- who likes her according to the poll?' ... this usually results in a shortened conversation because they've only read the first few paragraphs of the article and certainly not the full poll. For coworkers who are leaning towards Obama , I ask what are the key endorsements picked up by Obama...again the conversation is shortened.

As a first generation american Obama does not have a natural base. His base should be naturalized citizens and immigrants, but this base is not strong enough for a national race win -- hell probably not even strong enough for a council seat win in a modest sized city. Rightly so his campaign has tried to sure up his support among African-Americans. Obama at this stage of the game needs to secure key endorsements from his base which will in essence give him the coveted "ghetto pass" he needs to sure up a minority voting block.

Either you like Hillary or you don't. Either you like Bill Clinton or you don't. Unfortunately for Hillary she needs more people to like her then those who don't. If Hillary uses Bill to raise money, she will have to deal with his unfavorables and thus need to skew high on her on personal favorables to counter balance this. If she opts not to use Bill then she will need to eat deeply into Obama's African-American base. Hillary has already shown signs of attempting this with overt pitches to African-American women (African-American women IS the black voting block) and key endorsements by Af-Am women (ie - Maya Angelou).