Wednesday, January 09, 2008

NH: Ante Up, 'Nuck Up or Just Shut the Fck Up

As a sports head I am a devout follower of the win or go home edict. I believe that this is the only way for a candidate to broach the task of becoming an elected official. First they need to ante up - whether this is metaphorically on the issues or financially with there on personal wealth. They also should be ready to knuckle up because if you want that number one spot you better be battle tested, you better expect friend and foe to get at you -- you better be ready to show where you stand on issues. And of course if you can't do either of the above, you need to shut the f*ck up and go home.

No one remembers who ran against George Washington that first race, hell the way pollsters would have us believe we can't even remember who ran on the democratic ticket in 1984 (fyi - an elected female official from NY received the veep nod - Geraldine Ferraro). So generally if a candidate of my choosing loses I am the first to invoke they consider the 'third option' (shut up...go home). By the time all the votes are counted in the Granite State Obama will have lost. However, I am not ready to tell Mr. Obama to 'go home'. If Jigga can proclaim that 30s the new 20s, then a close 'second' is the new 'first' (or maybe a solid 'third' is a 'respectible' showing if you are Edwards). Clinton came into this year the odds on favorite. Since then Obama has made her respect his money game dean, has shown he is electible and now New Hampshire proves his campaign is - viable.

The delegate votes should be close if not identical for Clinton and Obama...his race is to stay on message and to pick up delegate votes. For Clinton the tomorrow brings spin (she pulled this miraculous victory out of NH, she's the comeback kid, etc), remessaging (because she won the battle but not the victory her campaign will retool the current message of experience to one of 'hope' and/or 'change') and hoping she only loses....5 percent of her fundraising base to Obama's single digit second place showing (how's that for alliteration !!!!).

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