There's a Hole in the Bucket.....

a round up of the latest PA polls....

Their Back !!!! SNL just what the political season was missing

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/index.shtml#mea=221776

Warm Fuzzies for All

not for nothin' the POW christmas ad by Sen. McCain is a little creepy....okay alot creepier then the prospects of a morman president....

WI: Cheeseheads Unite

This is not a Wisconsin only ad .... it's his national ad during the superbowl



again this is not currently running Wisconsin but I wanted to make sure I had a negative ad for Sen. Obama as well as the positive ad above...

LA, WA, NE: Big States , Little States...Red States, Blue States

I am disappointed that Sen. Clinton wasn't prepared to take this past 'Super' Tuesday...as a 'young' democrat who has voted for the last 15 years (yup ... been voting since I was 18)I am equally disappointed to see her campaign favor a more traditional route into the nomination (left coast, east coast, pull in urban areas to sway states blue in the midwest) which leads me to believe her campaign would be equally lazy in securing the general election ... it didn't work in 2004 so it probably won't work in 2008. I am disappointed that Sen. Clinton's campaign strategy consists of using her husband's favorables to counterbalance her unfavorables -- while expecting me as a voter not to consider her husband's unfavorables (ie - weak internationally -- somalia, arguably weak judicial nominees, etc.).

However, I am pleasantly surprised that Sen. Obama has given Sen. Clinton such a strong challenge for the nomination. I am pleasantly surprised he's has inspired so many young voters to register and to actually vote. I am glad he has brought back a level of equity to states that have long not been heard within the democratic party -- because despite what many who post believe NY and especially NYC is not the center of the universe.

Let's face it McCain is the presumptive nominee on the republican side -- and he did it without the support of the evangelicals or the conservatives. The democratic nominee will need to be able to make enough moderate republicans vote 'blue' for the general election. While I believe there's enough in Sen. Clinton's senate voting history to make moderate republicans consider her in November, I don't believe she is currently running a campaign that can pull it off. I suspect if Sen. Clinton wins the nomination, her campaign will not be ready to establish ground forces in key states where moderate republicans can be found -- such as Nebraska, Louisiana, Washington, Minnesota, etc. She will use the same broke 'messaging' that didn't work for democrats in 2000 or 2004. Her campaign will have no way of tapping into the all of the 'new' money Sen. Obama's campaign has generated, so she will rely more on soft money (both overt soft money and 527s)which will allow republicans to brand her as more of the same....

I would hope democrats would not discount any of Sen. Obama's wins and would see how 'big' these wins are for the democratic party and celebrate the strong possibility of a win in November.

NH: Ante Up, 'Nuck Up or Just Shut the Fck Up

As a sports head I am a devout follower of the win or go home edict. I believe that this is the only way for a candidate to broach the task of becoming an elected official. First they need to ante up - whether this is metaphorically on the issues or financially with there on personal wealth. They also should be ready to knuckle up because if you want that number one spot you better be battle tested, you better expect friend and foe to get at you -- you better be ready to show where you stand on issues. And of course if you can't do either of the above, you need to shut the f*ck up and go home.

No one remembers who ran against George Washington that first race, hell the way pollsters would have us believe we can't even remember who ran on the democratic ticket in 1984 (fyi - an elected female official from NY received the veep nod - Geraldine Ferraro). So generally if a candidate of my choosing loses I am the first to invoke they consider the 'third option' (shut up...go home). By the time all the votes are counted in the Granite State Obama will have lost. However, I am not ready to tell Mr. Obama to 'go home'. If Jigga can proclaim that 30s the new 20s, then a close 'second' is the new 'first' (or maybe a solid 'third' is a 'respectible' showing if you are Edwards). Clinton came into this year the odds on favorite. Since then Obama has made her respect his money game dean, has shown he is electible and now New Hampshire proves his campaign is - viable.

The delegate votes should be close if not identical for Clinton and Obama...his race is to stay on message and to pick up delegate votes. For Clinton the tomorrow brings spin (she pulled this miraculous victory out of NH, she's the comeback kid, etc), remessaging (because she won the battle but not the victory her campaign will retool the current message of experience to one of 'hope' and/or 'change') and hoping she only loses....5 percent of her fundraising base to Obama's single digit second place showing (how's that for alliteration !!!!).

So You Want To Be A Baller Shot Caller....

i grew up in the era of starter jackets. the starter jacket for the young ones wasn't necessarily a fashion marvel, nor was it a utilitarian beast like the carhartt but it was a useful staple. before the gangs adopted the new era cap as the helmet du jour, gangbangers passed of the love of collegiate and professional sports as a way to fly their colors. bloods use to rep UNLV (the runnin' rebels and coincidently alma mater of blood affiliated big homie -- suge knight)and some crips use to back the blue devils of duke university. in them days, it came down to who was worth the 89 bucks and who on those cold nights when you're hanging about who would you want sprawled across your back. essentially, you were repping some set (your town ala the l.a. raiders, your gang colors, your block). the top of campaign season reminds me alot those days. someone is always checking for who you're repping and how you repping whatever set you plan to throw down with. you only have to look at the iowa caucus to see this interaction in play.

iowa is not representative of the electoral body, nor is it a true allegory of 'democracy in action', and it doesn't hold any strategical strength -- yet it's in play. at best a caucus win represents the same as the gold star, for remembering your 9 times table, did in fourth grade -- a big old good for you...now you have three more sets to go before we let you off the hook. the candidates have landed flooded the airwaves with radio spots, tv spots, and plenty of mailers which in essence read 'come bang with me'.